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Many inquiry reports blame management for their failures of foresight. These reports are based on the premise that, with a little more thought, these oversights, and so the crisis, would have been avoided. Is it really that simple? The important question is whether, without hindsight, it would have even been possible to identify the actual factors that lead to the failure. This book explores this issue as a practical problem.
The book takes Barry Turner’s Disaster Incubation Theory as its central theme. The first chapter explores the way Turner structured his theory and the way it has been used, before re-imagining it as a way to fostering foresight. The next three chapters examine key issues in detail. They explain why Turner's model was chosen, outline the issues that need to be considered when seeking to prevent such failures and how to use the proposed frameworks. Chapter 5 examines the lessons learnt from this study and, in particular, looks at the mental approach required when seeking such foresight. Finally, Chapter 6 provides a fully worked example. It uses work by Frank Stech who has applied Turner's theory to a past case.
Crises occur everywhere and we continue to struggle to avoid them. In this book Mike Lauder provides executives with thinking tools to help them avoid missing the warning signs of their next crisis.
- Sales Rank: #5523224 in Books
- Published on: 2016-02-09
- Original language: English
- Dimensions: 9.50" h x 7.00" w x 1.00" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 238 pages
About the Author
Dr Mike Lauder MBE has worked in risk management for the last 30 years. He is now an independent researcher and a visiting fellow at Cranfield School of Management, where he undertook his doctorate studying risk governance and the process, outcomes, effectiveness and efficacy of public inquiries. He has a wide range of experience in this field covering his time in the military and as a consultant. He has practical experience of risk management as a military engineer, including work in bomb disposal and as a security specialist. He has worked in both construction and procurement project management and has wider experience of logistic operations and corporate financial planning. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Management Institute and has published in Risk Management Professional, the magazine of The Institute of Risk Management.
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A management tool for generating foresight
By Michael Harvey
Dr. Mike Lauder's new book is fascinating. He revives an earlier work by B.A. Turner, extending Turner's thinking and developing a tool that executives and risk managers can use to anticipate possible future disasters (think BP's Deepwater Horizon explosion - $61.6B as of July 14, 2016 according to BP's own statement or the flooding of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station - close to $100B cost to Japanese taxpayers according to the Financial Times, March 6, 2016).
Drawing on Turner's Disaster Incubation Theory, his own earlier work and other works in the field (by Cohen and Gooch, for example), Mike Lauder develops the Catalytic Cube, a three-dimensional framework useful in developing foresight. He then illustrates its use in the instance of the time period between the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War between Israel and it's neighbors. Dr. Lauder shows how decisions made during that more than six year period reduced Israel's war readiness. He illustrates how updated thinking, using the Catalytic Cube as a guide, may have helped Israel avoid mistakes of dysfunctional organizational momentum, the Plowman Effect (unintended adverse consequences of plans in place), practical drift (efficacy of standards and precautions reduced over time as the environment changes) and structural secrecy (important groups not effectively communicating with each other).
Can we avoid the next big disaster? Maybe. Mike Lauder shows us a way.
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